Market-based credit ratings with honest uncertainty — 150 companies, computed offline

KMV/Merton structural model → Time-Consistent measures → a letter that never travels without its interval. Press ⌘K or /, or use the search box above.

ρ = 0.79rank correlation against sourced agency ratings (0.73 restricted to scale-resolved names)×4,073how much the PD-based letter layer amplifies parameter uncertainty vs the drift-free RiskScoreτ = 0.956ordering stability across 2,000 bootstrap replicates — the extremes are never misordered+5 notcheshow optimistic the letter runs against agency ratings — the conversion, not the ordering, is the weak layer

All numbers on this site are computed under the documented convention (the run of record); eight names also carry reference-convention values on their company pages.

Why does every big name show AAA? That is the finding, not a bug. For large liquid investment-grade firms a market-implied one-year default probability is smaller than anything a rating scale can express, so the letter pins at the scale's ceiling — 60% of rated names land there, which is exactly why this project leads with RiskScore and the rank ordering instead of the letter. Scale resolution →

Safest 10 by RiskScore

  1. 1COSTCostco Wholesale Corporation0.18AAA (AAA..AAA-)
  2. 2BRK-BBerkshire Hathaway Inc.0.23—
  3. 3AAPLApple Inc.0.27AAA (AAA..AAA-)
  4. 4VVisa Inc.0.29AAA (AAA..AAA-)
  5. 5NVDANVIDIA Corporation0.29AAA (AAA..AAA)
  6. 6MAMastercard Incorporated0.31AAA (AAA..AAA-)
  7. 7KOThe Coca-Cola Company0.37AAA (AAA..AAA-)
  8. 8MSFTMicrosoft Corporation0.38AAA- (AAA..AAA-)
  9. 9PLTRPalantir Technologies Inc.0.43AAA (AAA..AAA-)
  10. 10GOOGLAlphabet Inc.0.47AAA- (AAA..AAA-)

Riskiest 10 by RiskScore

  1. 139CYHCommunity Health Systems, Inc.6597.92—
  2. 138BYNDBeyond Meat, Inc.893.34—
  3. 137XRXXerox Holdings Corporation757.53—
  4. 136SPWRSunPower Inc.112.10—
  5. 135CHTRCharter Communications, Inc.65.31—
  6. 134AMCAMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.64.98—
  7. 133LCIDLucid Group, Inc.48.08—
  8. 132KSSKohl's Corporation44.03—
  9. 131LUMNLumen Technologies, Inc.43.48—
  10. 130AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc.29.47—
Full universe — all 150 names, filters and charts →